招商证券*港股研究*招商局国际(00144.HK)－有效推进现有码头项目的业务发展*00144**余黄炎

报告名称：招商局国际(00144.HK)－有效推进现有码头项目的业务发展
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20100708

行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：招商局国际(00144)
投资建议：优于大市

【内容摘要】

China Merchants Holdings ("CMHI") announced to obtain the entrustment of a shareholder of China Nanshan Development Group. We believe CMHI will get to control the port operation of Shenzhen Chiwan Port Area after a half year or more. Its JV project in Qingdao Port is turning loss into gain. We can see that the management is steadily promoting the project management of the port business. We maintain the Outperform rating.

Further integration of Shenzhen Chiwan Port Area is on the way. CMHI announced to obtain the entrustment of a shareholder of China Nanshan Development Group. We believe CMHI will get to control the port operation of Shenzhen Chiwan Port Area after a half year or more.

JV project in Qingdao Port is turning loss into gain. CMHI entered into a JV agreement with QQCT in Dec. 2009. Since then the JV is operated well and has turned loss into gain by now. CMHI further formed a bulk terminal JV with Qingdao Port Group.

Equity container throughput will rebound by 16% YoY this year. In 2009, CMHI's equity container throughput declined by 16% YoY. Benefitting from China foreign trade recovery and the performance of Qingdao JV, we expect CMHI's equity container throughput will rebound by 16% in 2010.

Valuation of HK$30.40 per share. Maintain Outperform. We almost maintain our earnings forecasts of CMHI. We have revised down its valuation to HK$30.40 per share, representing PE of 18x 2010E EPS. We maintain the Outperform rating.


招商局国际近期宣布拟托管南山开发集团部分股权方案，表明公司将进一步推动深圳西部港口的整合。此外，公司与青岛港集团的合资项目顺利推进。我们基本维持公司2010－2012年盈利预测，对估值小幅下调至HK$30.40，维持对公司的"优于大市"评级。

托管南山开发集团部分股权，为绝对控股深赤湾铺路 我们认为，招商局国际通过授权获得南山开发集团的经营控制权，是一种过渡性的安排。招商局国际最终将采取一定的方案，使其获得对深赤湾及其下属公司的绝对控股权。

青岛码头合资项目顺利推进 公司在青岛港的集装箱码头合资公司QQCTU今年1－5月实现集装箱吞吐量46.7万TEU，预计全年可完成集装箱吞吐量100万TEU。而2009年青岛港招商局国际集装箱码头公司基本没有业务开展。在集装箱码头合资顺利的基础上，散货码头合资公司也开始运营。

今年集装箱吞吐量增速将高于全国总体增速 招商局国际的港口业务比重大的深圳港和上海港今年吞吐量增速将略高于全国。另外2010年青岛合资码头项目对公司的新增吞吐量贡献较大。我们预计2010年招商局国际的权益集装箱吞吐量达到约1620万TEU，比2009年增长16%，增速高于全国港口集装箱总吞吐量的增速。

估值为每股HK$30.40，评级为优于大市 我们基本维持公司的盈利预测。我们对公司按个别业务加总估值为HK$30.40。其中，我们对其联营企业中集集团每股估值为HK$16.60，对联营企业上港集团每股估值为人民币 4.90元。


【摘要结束】