报告名称：中国航空业季度评论－客货运需求旺盛，航班延误矛盾尖锐
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*行业报告
报告日期：20100722
行业/子行业：航空机场
公司名称及代码：
投资建议：无评级
【内容摘要】
In the second quarter, air passenger transportation is busier than that in the first quarter. Passenger load factor of the 3 big Chinese airlines and Cathay Pacific were all above 75%. In some days, bad weather and tight airspace resource even caused massive flight delays. We are worrying about that flight delay is harmful to the earnings of Chinese airlines. As a competitor of airlines, high-speed railway has huge transportation capacity and can hardly be affected by bad weather. We believe high-speed railway will be quite popular in China since 2013.
Passenger transportation volume increased QoQ in 2Q2010. In the second quarter, air passenger transportation in China mainland is busier than that in the first quarter. Passenger load factor of the 3 big Chinese airlines were all above 75%. Cathay Pacific's passenger load factor reached 83%.
Passenger yield increased YoY in 1H2010. A China ticket price index indicates that passenger yield in 1H2010 increased. Besides, it says the growth of ticket price in domestic routes is higher than that in international routes.
Flight delay is frequent in China's airports, which limits earning growth of airlines. Bad weather is a major reason for flight delay. Tight airspace resource is another special reason for flight delay in China. Obviously flight delay is harmful to the earnings of airlines.
Fuel price increased by over 20% YoY in 1H2010. In 1H2010, fuel price of Chinese airlines in international market increased by over 30%. Their fuel price in domestic market is higher than that in international market, due to the price control by the government.
Earnings forecast revision. To our surprise, China Eastern Airlines announced recently that its net profit in 1H2010 would increase by over 50%. Thus we have revised up our earnings forecast for airlines companies.
今年第二季度，三大中资航空公司的客运业务比第一季度更为繁忙，国泰航空的客运业务则与第一季度持平。货运方面，三大中资航空公司和国泰航空均环比增长。客运需求旺盛而空域资源紧张，加上今年上半年天气较为异常，导致中国航空客运出现了多次航班严重延误的情况。航空业的供需矛盾反过来显示了高速铁路的优势。我们重申2013年起中国高速铁路将对航空客运产生显著的分流。
第二季度中资航空公司客运量环比上升 从环比增长幅度看，中国东方航空第二季度旅客周转量环比增长6%，增幅最大；中国南方航空环比增幅1%，增幅最小；中国国航增幅介于中国东方航空和中国南方航空之间。
上半年年客运运价同比上升 根据《中国民用航空》公布的运价指数，今年年初以来客运票价指数高于2009年同期水平。其中，国际航线回升幅度大于国内航线。
今年以来航班延误情况严重，制约航空公司盈利增长 空域资源紧张，加上今年上半年天气较为异常，导致中国航空客运出现了多次航班严重延误的情况。航班延误一方面浪费航空公司运力，减少客运量，另一方面增加了航空公司的运营成本，因此对航空公司的盈利影响很大。在客运需求旺盛的情况下，航班延误成为制约航空公司盈利增长的重要因素。
上半年航油价格同比上升20%以上 今年中资航空公司的国内航线燃油价格在5600元/吨以上，比2009年上半年上升20%以上。国际航线在国外采购的燃油价格在4800元/吨以上，比2009年上半年上升30%以上。
盈利预测上调 中国东方航空称今年中期盈利预计增长50%以上，即在15亿元人民币以上，超出我们预期。我们上调了航空公司的盈利预测。我们对中国国航的目标价按3倍目标PB和2010年预测，从此前的HK$10.90下调至HK$9.70。对国泰航空仍然按1.8倍目标PB估值。
【摘要结束】
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