报告名称：航运业季度评论－集装箱航运形势相对较好
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*行业报告
报告日期：20101029
行业/子行业：水陆运输
公司名称及代码：
投资建议：无评级
【内容摘要】
We have reviewed dry bulk shipping, tank operating, and container shipping industry in this year. We find that container shipping industry performed best in the first three quarters. China Shipping Dev's earning in the 3rd quarter was about RMB 450 million, near to that in the 2nd quarter. China COSCO's earning in the 3rd quarter was about RMB 2,450 million, also near to that in the 2nd quarter.
China's demand factors: import of iron ore reduced slightly, while import of oil and coal surged. In the first three quarters, China imported iron ore 458 million tons, slightly down 3% YoY; imported crude oil 246 million tons, up 21% YoY; imported coal 123 million tons, up 43% YoY.
BDI fluctuated between 4000-1800. BDI reached its high of about 4000 point in this June, and then sharply dropped to about 1800 point in July. After that, BDI rebounded and now stay between 2500-2700. We believe BDI will be smooth in the 4th quarter.
Container freight: lower in 1H and higher in 2H. In the first half year, HRCI continued its weakness in 2009. In June, main liners successfully raised their freights. The upside trend of container freight went on to this October. Recently HRCI decreased slightly. We believe HRCI may dereased slightly in the last quarter.
Companies comments. China Shipping Dev's earning in the 3rd quarter was about RMB 450 million, near to that in the 2nd quarter. We believe its earning in 2010 would be RMB 2.0 billion. China COSCO's earning in the 3rd quarter was about RMB 2,450 million, also near to that in 2nd quarter. We believe its earning in 2010 would be RMB 8.9 billion. We maintain "Outperform" for China COSCO, "Buy" for Sinotrans Shipping, and upgrade China Shipping Dev from "Outperform" to "Buy".
航运业大致可分为干散货航运业、油运业和集装箱航运业三个子行业。综观今年以来三个子行业的表现，我们发现今年干散货航运业表现为先好后差；油运业市场总体较好，但具体到单个航运公司情况各有区别；集装箱航运业先差后好。就公司而言，中海发展第三季度业绩平稳，与前两个季度相当。中国远洋第三季度盈利与第二季度接近。我们对中海发展和中外运航运评级为"买入"，对中国远洋评级为"优于大市"。
中国的海运需求：铁矿石进口增幅小，原油和煤炭进口增幅大 今年前三季度，中国铁矿石进口量为4.58亿吨，同比减少3%；中国煤炭进口量达1.23亿吨，同比大幅增长43%；中国原油进口量达2.46亿吨，同比大幅增长21%。
BDI今年在4000－1800点之间大幅波动 回顾今年的BDI表现，随着全球经济的逐步复苏，BDI在2010年6月超过4000点，然后在欧洲债务危机阴影下在7月份大跌至近1800点。随后，BDI又快速反弹到2000点以上。目前在2500－2700点之间波动。我们根据干散货运力供求状况预计BDI在第四季度走势平稳。在2011年BDI可能在2500－4000点之间波动。
集装箱运价：上半年运价低，下半年强劲上涨 今年上半年，HRCI延续2009年的弱势。但自6月起，主要集装箱航运公司集体提价，HRCI大幅上升，到目前为止上升50%以上。根据运力供求状况，我们初步预计集装箱运价在第四季度小幅下跌，在明年将在500－700点之间波动。
中海发展和中国远洋第三季度业绩平稳 按中国会计准则，中国远洋今年第三季度净利润为24.5亿元人民币，与第二季度接近；中海发展第三季度净利润为4.5亿元，与前两个季度相当。
【摘要结束】
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