招商证券*港股研究*中外运航运(00368.HK)——与长航凤凰合并将导致“1+1<1”*00368**余黄炎

报告名称：中外运航运(00368.HK)——与长航凤凰合并将导致"1+1<1"
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20101222

行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：中外运航运(00368)
投资建议：买入

【内容摘要】

Market rumour says that Sinotrans Shipping's parent is considering whether proposing the merger between Sinotrans Shipping and CSC-HY(000520.CH). CSC-HY is an inland shipping company. If so, we believe that would be a nightmare for Sinotrans Shipping. The reason is that the possible merger departures from some rules for successful merger. Sinotrans Shipping and CSC-HY cannot absorb each other.

CSC-HY is big and weak. CSC-HY's profitability is weak. In 2009 it made loss. It is heavily-indebted and its asset-liability ratio is over 80%. Meanwhile, CSC-HY has a fleet with capacity of 2.7 million DWT and over 10 thousands employees.

Sinotrans Shipping is healthy and solid. Sinotrans Shipping's profitability is almost strong compared with its peers. Its asset-liability ratio is very low, attributable to its profitability and IPO in 2007.

Possible merger would be a nightmare for Sinotrans Shipping. We believe that Sinotrans Shipping and CSC-HY have different business model, different market, different fleet structure, different management style and different corporate culture. They cannot absorb each other.

A merger is usually not successful, unless it strictly follows some rules. We believe two rules for successful merger: one is that the acquirer must have strong business position, powerful executive force and firm corporate culture. The other is that the acquired company's revenue need to be 1/5 or less of that of the acquirer.


市场传言中外运长航集团内部有人建议推动中外运航运与长航凤凰(000520.CH)的合并，理由是这两家公司都从事干散货航运业务。我们认为这是一个馊主意。假如实施合并的话，中外运航运的业务和盈利能力必然受到拖累，很可能造成"1+1<1"的后果。我们还利用另外两个公司的案例推论出企业收购的一般准则。

中外运长航集团的成立本身是一个败笔 2008年底，原中外运集团与原长航集团合并，但两年以来两大集团整而不合，造成了一些内耗，影响了下属公司的改革和发展速度。两大集团的合并也是中外运航运可能与长航凤凰合并的根源。

长航凤凰盈利能力较差，盲目扩张 2005－2008年长航凤凰盈利能力较差，2009年亏损。公司资产负债率超过80%。2010－2011年购买船舶的总投资额是公司净资产的5倍左右。

中外运航运盈利能力较强，经营稳健 2005－2008年中外运航运盈利能力较强，2009年仍然盈利。公司管理层的经营风格稳健。

中外运航运与长航凤凰的合并很可能造成"1+1<1"的后果 假如实施合并的话，中外运航运的业务和盈利能力必然受到拖累。原因是，两家公司的规模接近，管理和企业文化上互不兼容。

从中集集团和国美电器案例看成功收购的准则 成功收购的准则之一是被收购方公司的业务和人员规模最好是收购公司的1/5或更小；准则之二是收购公司拥有强大的企业文化、企业制度和管理能力。


【摘要结束】