招商证券*港股研究*重庆农村商业银行(03681.HK)-具有西部+县域特色的高成长性银行*03618**叶莲,余黄炎

报告名称：重庆农村商业银行(03681.HK)-具有西部+县域特色的高成长性银行
研究员：叶莲,余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20110128

行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：重庆农村商业银行(03618)
投资建议：优于大市

【内容摘要】

重庆农商行于2008年6月由原重庆市农村信用联社、39个区县信用社和农村合作银行组建而成，截至2010年上半年是重庆存款额和总资产排名第一、贷款额排名第四的银行。2010年六月末，总资产和负债分别为人民币2616亿元和2489亿元，较2010年初分别上涨29.9% 和29.7%。2010年上半年总收入与净利润分别为人民币36亿与16.6亿元，同比增长49%和80%。我们认为重庆农商行具有良好的成长性，吸收存款能力强，上市后资本充足率高于同业。我们预测从2010年到2012年，重庆农商行税后净利润将有28.6%的年复合增长，高于22%的行业平均增速。主要因为1）高达31.5%、远超行业平均的贷款年复合增长率；2）高于行业平均、2011年可达3.07%的净息差；3）存贷比到2012年底可提升至65.4%，拨贷比可降至3.14%。我们认为重庆农商行比重庆任何另一家银行更具有中期盈利增长性。另外，重庆农商行在重庆特别是县域拥有覆盖最广的网点和高知名度，截至2010年上半年，分行数目市场份额达40%，县域存款市场份额达27.6%，县域贷款市场份额达25.5%，均为重庆最高。随着重庆的进一步城市化和国家对西部建设的进一步重视，县域业务将会有更大发展空间。我们将未来12个月目标价设为港币6.3元，预测2011年每股收益0.43元人民币，每股净资产2.81元人民币，对应1.9倍的2011年预测市净率、12.46倍的2011年预测市盈率，给予优于大市评级。


Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd ("CRCB") is Chongqing's largest bank in terms of total assets and total deposits, and the fourth largest in terms of total loans at 1H10. As of June 30, 2010, total asset and total liabilities increased 29.9% and 29.7% YTD, respectively, while total 1H10 income and net profit increased 49% and 80% YoY, respectively. We believe CRCB has solid growth catalysts, strong deposit base and high CAR post-IPO. We forecast net profit after tax to grow at CAGR of 28.6% from FY10 to FY12 (vs. sector average of 22%), driven by: 1) largely above sector-average loan growth of 31.5% CAGR; 2) higherthan sector-average NIM that could reach 3.07% by the end of 2011; 3) strong earnings potential given its potential to raise loan/deposit ratios from 61.8 % in 1H10 to 65.4 % in 2012E, and reduced provision/loan ratio from 5.6% in 2009 to 3.1% in 2012E. We believe CRCB has better mid-term earnings growth potential than other banks in Chongqing. Also, CRCB has the highest market share (>40%) in Chongqing in terms of the number of branches, 27.6% market share in county area deposits and 25.5% market share in county area loans, higher than any other banks in Chongqing. As Chongqing progresses with urbanization and the government continues with its commitment to develop the western area, CRCB will enjoy a faster growth in its county area business.
We set the 12-month target price at HK$6.5 with EPS of Rmb0.43 yuan, BVPS of Rmb 2.81 yuan, with 12.46x2011E P/E and 1.9x2011E P/B, initiate with Outperform rating.



【摘要结束】