招商证券*港股研究*中国航运业评论——重资产行业的投资回报率较低***余黄炎

报告名称：中国航运业评论——重资产行业的投资回报率较低
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*行业报告
报告日期：20110120

行业/子行业：水陆运输
公司名称及代码：
投资建议：无评级

【内容摘要】

我们考察航运业的3年以上的投资回报率，并以东方海外作为航运业的代表。一般可以用3年以上的股价回报率来衡量一家公司的投资回报率。东方海外是一家典型的重资产业务公司，而在香港证券市场，腾讯控股是一家典型的轻资产业务公司。我们发现，这两家公司的投资回报率差距非常大。差距很大的一个重要原因，就是这两家公司分别从事重资产业务和轻资产业务。

东方海外：一家重资产业务公司 2009年末，东方海外总资产501亿元（人民币，除非特别说明），2009年收入297亿元，经常性业务亏损24.1亿元，总资产周转率(总资产中扣除现金和存款)仅1.2倍。

东方海外2005年初以来6年的股价回报率为221% 东方海外2005年初以来6年的股价回报率为221%。这一回报率算是比较高。这得益于该公司很强的盈利能力和抗风险能力。

腾讯控股：典型的轻资产业务公司 2009年末，腾讯控股总资产175.1亿元（含115.5亿元现金和银行存款），2009年收入124.4亿元，经常性净利润为51.6亿元，总资产周转率(总资产中扣除现金和存款)为2.1倍，经常性净资产收益率高达54%。

腾讯控股2005年初以来6年的股价回报率为51.4倍 2005年初，东方海外的复权后股价为3.84港元，当前最新股价为201.40港元。总市值高达3696亿港元。

重资产行业投资回报率较低 根据杜邦财务分析系统，东方海外的净资产收益率较低，一方面是因为销售净利率较低，另一方面是因为总资产周转率较低。重资产的特征不仅导致东方海外的盈利能力不强，更导致东方海外的公司自由现金流状况较差。

During Jan 2005-Jan 2011, OOIL's total share price return is 221%. We believe OOIL operates heavy assets. Tencent Holdings (700.HK), a software company which provides internet value-added services and telecom value-added services, has total share price return of 5140% during Jan 2005-Jan 2011. Tencent Holdings is a typical light-asset company. In this report, we try to study why the two companies have so different investment returns to their shareholders.

OOIL: a typical heavy-asset company. At the end of 2009, OOIL's total assets were RMB 50.1 billion. In 2009, OOIL's revenue was RMB 29.7 billion and recurrent net loss was RMB 2,410 million. Accordingly, OOIL's total assets turnover in 2009 was only 1.2x, and recurrent ROE was negative.

OOIL's share price return is acceptable. During Jan 2005-Jan 2011, OOIL's total share price return is 221%. This result thanks to the strong recovery in global container shipping market China in 2010.

Tencent Holdings: a typical light-asset company. At the end of 2009, Tencent Holdings' total assets were RMB 17.5 billion (including huge cash). In 2009, Tencent Holdings' revenue was RMB 12.4 billion and recurrent net profit was RMB 5,160 million. Accordingly, Tencent Holdings' total assets turnover was 2.1x, and recurrent ROE was as high as 54%.

Tencent Holdings' share price return is very high. During Jan 2005-Jan 2011, Tencent Holdings total share price return is 5140%.

A heavy-asset company has low investment return for shareholders. According to System of Dupont Financial Analysis, the ROE of a company depends on its net profit margin and total assets turnover. A heavy- asset company usually has low total assets turnover and then low ROE.


【摘要结束】