报告名称：中国航空业评论——中资航空公司1月客座率低于80%
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*行业报告
报告日期：20110218
行业/子行业：航空机场
公司名称及代码：
投资建议：无评级
【内容摘要】
1月中国国航、中国南方航空和中国东方航空的客座率分别为79%、79%和76%。国泰航空的客座率为81%。1月国际原油期货价格在93－100美元/桶之间。1月内，人民币对美元继续升值。我们估计1月中国国航和国泰航空有经常性业务盈利，而中国南方航空和中国东方航空经常性业务亏损。鉴于中国国航近期股价有所下跌，我们提高其评级为"优于大市"；维持国泰航空"优于大市"评级。
中资航空公司1月客座率低于80% 1月中国国航、中国南方航空和中国东方航空的客座率分别为79%、79%和76%。中国国航和中国东方航空的货邮运载率分别为59%和60%。
国泰航空1月客座率为81% 国泰航空1月客座率为81%，同比下跌3个百分点；货邮运载率为68%，同比下跌7个百分点。
1月国际原油期货价格在93－100美元/桶之间 1月内国际原油期货价格继续上升，波动区间为93－100美元/桶。这个价格对航空公司而言压力很大。
1月内，人民币对美元继续升值 美元对人民币汇率在2010年12月末为6.62：1，今年1月末为6.59：1。
评级调整 鉴于中国国航近期股价有所下跌，我们提高其评级为"优于大市"。我们将国泰航空的目标价从HK$25.70下调至HK$21.50，反映其业务景气度下滑。于是维持国泰航空"优于大市"评级。
In January, passenger load factors of Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines were 79%, 79% and 76%, respectively. Cathay Pacific's passenger load factor was 81%. Crude oil price in January moved between US$ 93-100/barrel. China currency continued appreciating to US dollars. We have upgraded the rating of Air China to "outperform", according to its recent price correction.
Passenger load factors of Chinese airlines were below 80% in January. In January, passenger load factors of Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines were 79%, 79% and 76%, respectively.
Cathay Pacific's passenger load factor was 81%. In January, Cathay Pacific's passenger load factor was 81%, down by 3 ppt YoY. Its cargo load factor was 68%, down by 7 ppt YoY.
Crude oil price in January moved between US$ 93-100/barrel. Crude oil price went on climbing in January. We believe that airlines are facing high fuel cost pressure.
China currency continued appreciating to US dollars. US$/RMB exchange rate declined from 6.62:1 to 6.59:1 in January.
Rating updated. Recently share prices of airlines sector has declined. Therefore, we have upgraded the rating of Air China to "outperform". We cut target price from HK$25.70 to HK$21.50, implying cutting the PB ratio target from 1.8x to 1.5x. Then we maintain Cathay Pacific's rating.
【摘要结束】
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