招商证券*港股研究*Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (03681.HK) - A fast growing bank with unique western+county concepts*03618**叶莲,余黄炎

报告名称：Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (03681.HK) - A fast growing bank with unique western+county concepts
研究员：叶莲,余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20110201

行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：重庆农村商业银行(03618)
投资建议：优于大市

【内容摘要】

Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd ("CRCB") was Chongqing's largest bank in terms of total assets and total deposits, and the fourth largest in terms of total loans at 1H10. As of June 30, 2010, total asset and total liabilities increased 29.9% and 29.7% YTD, respectively, while total 1H10 income and net profit increased 49% and 80% YoY, respectively. We believe CRCB has strong growth catalysts, solid deposit base and a high CAR post-IPO. We forecast net profit after tax to grow at CAGR of 28.6% from FY10 to FY12 (vs. sector average of 22%), driven by: 1) largely above sector-average loan growth of 31.5% CAGR; 2) higherthan sector-average NIM that could reach 3.07% by the end of 2011; 3) strong earnings potential given its potential to raise loan/deposit ratios from 61.8 % in 1H10 to 65.4 % in 2012E, and reduced provision/loan ratio from 5.6% in 2009 to 3.1% in 2012E. We believe CRCB has better mid-term earnings growth potential than other banks in Chongqing. Also, CRCB has the highest market share (>40%) in Chongqing in terms of the number of branches, 27.6% market share in county area deposits and 25.5% market share in county area loans, higher than any other banks in Chongqing. As Chongqing progresses with urbanization and the government continues with its commitment to develop the western area, CRCB will enjoy a faster growth in its county area business.
We set the 12-month target price at HK$6.5 with EPS of Rmb0.43 yuan, BVPS of Rmb 2.81 yuan, with 12.46x2011E P/E and 1.9x2011E P/B, initiate with Outperform rating.

【摘要结束】