报告名称：中国国航(00753.HK)－燃油价格高和京沪高铁开通是2011年两大挑战
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20110422
行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：中国国航(00753)
投资建议：中性
【内容摘要】
中国国航2010年取得历史最好业绩，净利润达到120.0亿元（人民币，下同），经常性净利润达100.1亿元。我们估计公司2011年的客座率和货邮运载率均比2010年有所下降，并且燃油成本大幅上升，于是经常性盈利将大幅下降至22.9亿元。我们按2011年每股预测净资产和目标市净率1.8倍对公司估值为每股HK$7.50，维持"中性"评级。
2010年取得历史最好业绩 2010年中国国航净利润达到120.0亿元（人民币，下同），经常性净利润达100.1亿元。客运和货运需求爆发式增长和较低的燃油价格是公司获得较高利润的两大因素。
2011年客座率难以达到2010年的水平 2010年国内航空客运需求的较快增长是对2008年低增长的一个弥补。但我们认为超过15%的增长率不可持续。今年1－2月，中国国航的旅客周转量累计仅同比增长9%。今年6月京沪高铁开通对公司的客运业务有一定负面影响。我们预计全年同比增长10%。
燃油价格很高将大大影响盈利 年初以来，国际原油价格的平均值达到97美元/桶，超出我们此前的假设。我们现假设2011年国际原油平均价格为95美元/桶（此前假设为90美元/桶）。
维持"中性"评级 我们小幅下调公司的盈利预测。我们按公司2011年每股预测净资产和目标市净率1.8倍对公司估值为每股HK$7.50，对公司维持"中性"评级。
Air China reported record-breaking net profit of RMB 12.0 billion and recurrent net profit of RMB 10.0 billion for 2010. In 2011, we expect passenger load factor and cargo load factor will be lower. Passenger transportation demand of Beijing-Shanghai will be shared by BJ-SH high speed railway since this June. Moreover, fuel price stay high since the beginning of 2011. We estimate that Air China's recurrent net profit in 2011 will drop. We set our target price at HK$7.50, based on 1.8x 2011E BVPS. Maintain Neural.
Recurrent net profit surged to RMB 10.0 billion in 2010. Air China reported record-breaking net profit of RMB 12.0 billion and recurrent net profit of RMB 10.0 billion for 2010. Exchange gain was RMB 1.9 billion.
Passenger load factor will decline YoY in 2011. In 2010, Air China's Passenger load factor was record-breaking 80%. We believe that level cannot be kept in 2011. We take 2010 as an unusual year. Also, passenger transportation demand of Beijing-Shanghai route will be shared by BJ-SH high speed railway since this June. We expect Air China's passenger load factor and cargo load factor will be lower in 2011 than those in 2010.
Fuel costs will be high in 2011. Oil price stays high since the beginning of 2011. This is a big thread for Air China.
Maintain Neutral. We estimate that Air China's recurrent net profit in 2011 will drop sharply. We set our target price at HK$7.50, based on 1.8x 2011E BVPS. Maintain Neural.
【摘要结束】
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