招商证券*港股研究*山东墨龙石油机械(00568.HK)－下半年盈利将高于上半年*00568**余黄炎

报告名称：山东墨龙石油机械(00568.HK)－下半年盈利将高于上半年
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20100816

行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：山东墨龙(00568)
投资建议：买入

【内容摘要】

Shandong Molong ("the company") reported net profit of RMB 121 million for 1H2010, slight lower than that in 1H2009. We expect that its net profit in the second half will be higher, because the company's 180mm special petroleum pipes project will contribute additional production capacity and generate additional revenue in the fourth quarter. Net profit in whole 2010 is estimated to be RMB 297 million. In 2011, its earnings will rise by 22%. We set the target price at HK$12.50, based on 2010E EPS and 12x PE ratio. Maintain BUY.

Net profit in 1H2010 slightly declined YoY. Shandong Molong's net profit for 1H2010 declined by 14% YoY. Its gross profit from sales was in line with that in 1H2009. However, finance costs hiked to RMB 20 million. Its other income and gains also declined YoY.

180mm special petroleum pipes project will contribute additional production capacity soon. Shandong Molong's 180mm special petroleum pipes project has finished its most reconstruction work. The project will contribute additional production capacity from this October.

A share issue will turn to reality. The authority has primarily approved the company's A share issue. The company may collect about RMB 600 million cash, to pay back its borrowings. We expect the A share issue can carry out at the end of 2010.

Maintain the BUY rating. We expect the company's net profit in 2010 would be RMB 297 million. We set the target price at HK$12.50, based on 12x of 2010E EPS. Maintain BUY.

Risks of products export. Anti-dumping measures from EU and USA may affect the product export of Shandong Molong in coming years.


山东墨龙（"公司"）2010年上半年净利润为1.2亿元（人民币，下同），同比轻微下跌。今年第四季度，180mm石油专用管生产线将为公司带来油管和套管的产量增长，从而将使得下半年的盈利高于上半年。我们预计公司今年全年净利润达到3.0亿元。我们以2010年预测每股盈利和12倍目标市盈率对公司估值为每股HK$12.50。目前公司股价仍然偏低，我们维持"买入"评级。

上半年盈利同比轻微下滑 上半年公司净利润比2009年同期下跌14%。油管收入同比下降14%，而套管收入则大幅增长55%。由于钢材价格波动影响，套管的经营利润率同比下跌3个百分点至15%。另外，银行贷款增加导致利息开支上升。

180mm石油专用管生产线将在10月试生产 公司的180mm石油专用管改造项目目前已经进展大部分，将于今年10月试生产。试生产后将为公司带来油管和套管的产量增加。

拟发行A股融资，以减轻负债 公司在今年上半年继续增加银行借贷，2010年6月末有息负债总额超过14亿元，资产负债率超过60%。公司拟在国内发行A股7000万股。假设发行价为每股9元人民币，则募集资金总额为6.3亿元，届时可以偿还银行贷款，减轻负债。我们预计公司A股发行可在2010年末完成。

维持"买入"评级 我们预测2010年公司净利润为3.0亿元，合每股盈利0.90元。我们以2010年预测每股盈利和12倍目标市盈率对公司估值为每股HK$12.50。目前公司股价仍然偏低，我们维持"买入"评级。

风险提示 美国和欧盟对中国钢管产品的反倾销和反补贴措施会对公司的产品出口量和出口价格产生一定的负面影响。


【摘要结束】