报告名称：江西铜业（0358.HK）—估值具吸引力，重申"买入"评级
研究员：魏晓爽
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20100830
行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：江西铜业股份(00358)
投资建议：买入
【内容摘要】
We reiterate our Buy rating on Jiangxi Copper (JXC) as its valuation is attractive. The outlook for copper in the next three years remains very strong. Copper has the best fundamentals across the mining sectors, with low inventory, limited idle capacity and a lack of committed new projects.
The overall global economy is on the track of recovery. The actual demand for copper will increase gradually while the US Dollars would remain weak. The gradual increase in prices of consumer products and production materials indicated that the pressure on preventing inflation becomes stronger. We are seeing rising gold prices. Under such circumstances, prices of JXC's products including copper, gold, silver and rare metals are unlikely to experience any substantial fall while price rise could still be expected. The smelting processing fee for copper cathode has been at the historical low and even lower than the production cost of the industry. Basically, there is no room to decline further. We are still more positive on JXC due to its earnings upside potential. Our EPS forecasts for 2010-2012 have been RMB 1.31, 1.60 and 1.76 respectively. We are reiterating Buy.
Copper, the best fundamentals across the mining sector As we forecast, the weeks of stock for worldwide copper will be 2.5 in 2010, largely less than that of other metals. 2010 1H consumption data indicates demand from China is still strong.
Gold, an always-rising metal The gradual increase in prices of consumer products and production materials indicated that the pressure on preventing inflation becomes stronger. We are seeing rising gold prices.
Valuation JXC valuation is cheap, in our view, based on: (1) JXC is current trading at 11X 2010E PE. Our 12-m target price of HK$23.84 is based up-cycle multiple of 18.2X 2010E PE, implying 48.1% potential upside. (2) Global peers are trading at 3.2X 2010E PB vs. JXC's 2.1X.
【摘要结束】
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