报告名称：中国铝业（2600.HK）—短期盈利改观，长期战略转型，维持"中性"评级.doc
研究员：魏晓爽
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20100830
行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：中国铝业(02600)
投资建议：中性
【内容摘要】
We reiterate our Neutral rating on Chalco as its valuation is unattractive. As the global economy regained momentum, demand for alumina and aluminum increased and the production capacity utilization rate of Chalco remained high. As at the end of June 2010, the production capacity utilization rates of alumina and aluminum of Chalco were 92.8% and 94.5%, respectively. In the first half of 2010, Chalco produced 4.93 million tonnes of alumina (+54.1% yoy), 1.93 million tonnes of primary aluminum (+20.0% yoy) and 270,000 tonnes of aluminum fabrication products (+43.2% yoy). Revenue of Chalco for the six months ended 30 June 2010 amounted to RMB59.8 billion, representing an increase of 114% yoy. The profit attributable to equity holders of the Company amounted to RMB531 million. We forecast the net profit of Chalco in 2010-2012 will be RMB 1.23 billion, 1.99 billion and 2.75 billion respectively. Chalco shares are now trading at 1.3x 2010e PB and 51x 2010e PE. Our PT of HK$6.75 implies less than 10% upside.
Aluminum fundamentals are improving By the end of June, capacity utilization rates of Alumina had been 86.7% globally, and 90.7% in China. Capacity utilization rates of Aluminum had been 80.9% globally and 88.2% in China. Aluminum price will continue to fluctuate in the 2nd half of 2010. Fundamentally, demand from property will bring uncertainty to aluminum market, while liquidity situation will reinforce the price fluctuation.
Valuation unattractive We forecast the net profit of Chalco in 2010-2012 will be RMB 1.23 billion, 1.99 billion and 2.75 billion respectively. Chalco shares are now trading at 1.3x 2010e PB and 51x 2010e PE. Even on our estimate of 2011EPS of Rmb.0.15, the stock looks not cheap at 37x forward PE. We set target price at 6.75HK$, which means there is less than 10% upside potential in 12 months for Chalco. Maintain "Neutral".
【摘要结束】
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