招商证券*港股研究*中海发展(01138.HK)－盈利能力优于同行，但资本开支影响自由现金流*01138**余黄炎

报告名称：中海发展(01138.HK)－盈利能力优于同行，但资本开支影响自由现金流
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20101018

行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：中海发展股份(01138)
投资建议：优于大市

【内容摘要】

我们首次研究中海发展（"公司"）。公司的业务包括石油海运和干散货海运。与同行相比，公司盈利能力较强。不过，海运业务属于重资产运营业务，公司持续多年产生大额资本开支，使得公司的历史公司自由现金流(FCFF)一直处于远远低于经常性净利润的水平。我们尝试对公司进行现金流贴现(DCF)估值，确定了公司的理论价值。同时，我们按目标PB法，对公司的目标价确定为HK$14.00，给予"优于大市"评级。

公司一直持续发展船舶运力，同时实施船舶以旧换新和大型化 2000年末公司总运力为365万载重吨，到2009年达到889万载重吨。到2012年，公司运力将比2009年增加85%。在保证运力增加的同时，逐步淘汰旧船，并购置超大型油轮和矿石船。

发展运力持续花费巨额资金 2003－2009年，公司资本开支合计高达316.59亿元。2010－2012年，预计公司资本开支合计超过150亿元。

2001年以来持续实现盈利，盈利能力强于同行 2001－2008年之间中海发展经常性净利润持续增长。此期间大部分年份公司的经常性ROE在20%以上。

自由现金流较差，但我们尝试现金流贴现估值 2003－2009年，中海发展的公司自由现金流较差。尽管如此，我们仍然尝试使用现金流贴现对公司估值。在我们的假设条件下，中海发展的每股DCF价值为￥9.60或HK$11.00。

给予"优于大市"评级 对于中短期的投资而言，我们认为PB法估值更适合于中海发展。我们按2010年预测每股净资产和1.8倍目标PB对公司估值为每股HK$14.00，给予"优于大市"评级。

China Shipping Development ("CSD") is a China-based bulk shipping company. It has higher profitability compared with its peers. However, its business growth depends on continuous huge Capex, which makes CSD record low free cash flows. We try DCF valuation for CSD in this report. For the target price, we apply PB ratio multiple. We set our target price at HK$14.00. We initiate coverage with OUTPERFORM rating.

Expand fleet capacity continuously. In last 10years, CSD expanded fleet capacity continuously. During 2010-2012, CSD will keep its expansion step. Moreover, it replaces old small ships with big ships.

Cost huge Capex in fleet expansion. During 2003-2009, CSD's Capex totaled RMB 31.7 billion. During 2010-2012, its Capex will exceed RMB 15 billion.

Higher profitability compared with its peers. During 2001-2008, CSD's earning kept growing. Its ROEs were over 20% during booming 2004-2008,. Even in tough 2009, its net profit amounted to RMB 1,065 million and ROE was 5%.

Poor FCFF and tentative DCF valuation. Due to its continuous huge Capex, CSD recorded poor FCFF in last 10 years. We try DCF valuation for CSD here and conclude its current valuation per share of HK$11.00.

Initiate coverage with OUTPERFORM rating. For short and middle term investment, PB ratio multiple is applicable for valuation. We set our target price at HK$14.00, representing 1.8x 2010E BVPS. Our rating is Outperform.


【摘要结束】