招商证券*港股研究*中国航空运输业－京沪高速铁路将对国内航空客运产生分流***余黄炎

报告名称：中国航空运输业－京沪高速铁路将对国内航空客运产生分流
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*行业报告
报告日期：20101011

行业/子行业：航空机场
公司名称及代码：
投资建议：无评级

【内容摘要】

Latest news says that Beijing-Shanghai High-speed railway will commence operation by the end of 2011. Recently, we visited Shanghai Hongqiao station of high-speed railway. We find that the Hongqiao station is as beautiful and comfortable as an airport. We believe that Beijing-Shanghai High-speed railway will attract passengers of airlines, especially economy class passengers.

Infrastructure and equipment of high-speed railway station is competitive. Recently, we visited Shanghai Hongqiao station of high-speed railway. We find that Hongqiao station is as beautiful and comfortable as an airport. We believe that Beijing-Shanghai High-speed railway will attract passengers of airlines, especially economy class passengers.

Transfer in Hongqiao station is smooth. When passengers arrive at Shanghai Hongqiao station, they can transfer to subway, taxi and bus conveniently.

Beijing-Shanghai and Jinan-Shanghai: airlines cannot save time with one hour flight delay. In Beijing-Shanghai and Jinan-Shanghai trips, it takes less one hour to travel via airlines than to travel via high-speed railway. However, when there is flight delay, passengers may choose high-speed railway.

Beijing- Jinan and Beijing –Nanjing: high-speed railway can save time. In Beijing- Jinan and Beijing –Nanjing trips, passengers have to spend 2-3hours in urban Beijing. Therefore, travelling via high-speed railway will take less time.

根据最新报道，京沪高速铁路有望在2011年末通车。我们近日参观了上海虹桥站，发现京沪高速铁路虹桥站的硬件设施与虹桥机场的硬件设施基本相似，能够满足中高端旅客的旅行需求。我们认为京沪高速铁路运营后将对北京－济南－南京－上海沿线的航空经济舱旅客产生分流。

京沪高速铁路虹桥站的硬件设施与虹桥机场的硬件设施基本相似 京沪高速铁路虹桥站紧邻虹桥机场，在车站大楼、购买设施、交通信息显示屏等硬件设施上，京沪高速铁路虹桥站的硬件设施与机场的硬件设施基本相似。安检设施方面，虹桥站仍然使用普通铁路的安检设备，在心理上感觉仍然不如机场安检服务。

京沪高速铁路虹桥站与地铁、出租车和巴士服务实现无缝对接 旅客到达京沪高速铁路虹桥站后，可以在站内很方便地转乘地铁、出租车或巴士。

北京－上海和济南－上海：高铁总旅行时间多1小时，在航班延误时具备优势 京沪高铁总旅行时间比航空客运总旅行时间多1小时，略有劣势。但在航班延误达到1小时以上时，京沪高铁总旅行时间将比航空客运更省时。

北京－济南和北京－南京：京沪高铁总旅行时间具备优势 在北京－济南航线上，由于北京地区旅客从出发地到机场耗时较长，因此高速铁路更具备快捷性优势。在北京－南京航线上，航空客运和高速铁路的总旅行时间大致相同。但由于高速铁路具备班次密集和准点的优势，因此北京－济南和北京－南京航线将在京沪高铁开通后受到严重冲击。


【摘要结束】