招商证券*港股研究*银行业 - 2011年第一次加息影响中性***叶莲,何钟

报告名称：银行业 - 2011年第一次加息影响中性
研究员：叶莲,何钟
报告类型：港股研究*行业报告
报告日期：20110211

行业/子行业：银行
公司名称及代码：
投资建议：无评级

【内容摘要】

事件：人民银行公布从2 月9 日起上调存贷款基准利率。1 年期存贷款利率对称上调25 基点，分别提升至3.00%和6.06%，活期利率上调4基点至0.4%；其他期限存款利率上调0.30-0.45%，其他期限贷款利率则分别上调0.20-0.25%.

点评:本次加息意在控制流动性和管理通胀预期,符合市场普遍预期。 这是自去年十月以来央行第三次加息，特点如下: 1)除一年期以外的各期限存贷利差有小幅缩窄。比起去年12月的上一次加息，本次加息幅度更大，例如两年和三年期存款利率各增加35基点，五年期存款利率增加了45个基点，而上次加息中两年和三年存款利率各增加30基点，五年利率增加35基点。因此本次加息对息差的影响也较上次略大; 2)定期存款利率较贷款利率上调幅度大，可见本次加息有修正负利率的目的，一定程度上希望能缓解存款活期化的压力。但是，在加息预期下，我们认为存款活期化的趋势仍会持续; 3)一年期存贷款利率为对称上调，故一年期利差不受影响;4）与前两次不同的是，本次加息上调了活期存款利率。历史上央行较少以变动活期存款利率作为控制通胀预期的工具，上次调整是在2007年。虽然H股上市银行活期存款占比已达到了50%(截止2010年上半年数据),这次仅4基点的利率上调对息差负面影响很小。

据我们测算，本次加息对H股银行2011年净息差影响约0.2基点，对2011年净利润影响约0.15%。综合看来，我们认为此次加息对银行业影响中性，对贷存比高、活期存款占比较小的银行更为有利，譬如中银以及招行（见附表2和3）。我们预计第一季度应不会再度加息，但3月份估计会再次上调存款准备金率。2011年全年央行可能还会进行3-4次25基点的加息，但活期存款利率大幅上调的可能性很小。本轮加息周期以来，银行息差已得到一定程度的扩张。估计2010年第四季度多数银行息差仍有缓慢回升。 我们认为2011年的货币政策对息差的影响程度会保持温和。 目前H股银行股价约对应8.5倍2011年P/E和1.5倍P/B,一定程度上已反映了紧缩货币政策对市场情绪的负面影响，现有股价仍有较高上升空间，建议投资者逢低吸纳，维持行业的推荐评级。

Event: PBOC raised interest rates for the first time in 2011. One-year benchmark deposit rate goes up to 3% from 2.75% while one-year key lending rate also increases by 25 bps to 6.06 %. Demand deposit rate goes up 4 bps to 0.4%.

Comments: The 3rd rate hike since October 2010 marked PBOC's effort to curb inflation and manage liquidity. According to our economist, CPI for January 2011 could be as high as 5.2%. The rate hike was not unexpected amidst the pessimistic market expectation on inflation.
· Spread was narrowed for deposit/lending for all duration except 1-yr. This rate hike was stronger than the last one, as reflected by the 35bps increase in 2 and 3-yr deposit rates and 45 bps increase in 5-yr deposit rates, vs. 30 bps increase in 2 and 3-yr deposit rates and 35 bps increase in 5-yr deposit rate in the last rate hike.
· Timed deposit rates increased more than lending rates for the same duration, meaning the goal at correcting negative real interest rate. Yet during rate hike expectations, we believe demand deposit % will continue to increase.
· No impact on 1-yr spread as benchmark deposit and lending rates were both raised by 25 bps.
· Different from the last two rate hikes, this time the benchmark demand deposit rate was raised. PBOC rarely alter demand interest rate as a way to curb inflation, as the last time it did was in 2007. Although H-share banks have 50% demand deposits (as of 1H10), the mere 4 bps increase in demand deposit rate will have little negative impact on NIM.

Our calculation shows that the rate hike will expand 2011 NIM by 0.2 bps and increase 2011 net profit by 0.15%. The impact on banks will be neutral, with more benefit to banks with higher LDR and smaller portion of demand deposits (i.e, BoC and CMB). We don't expect any more rate hikes in 1Q11, although we expect another increase in required reserve ratios. We expect 3-4 more rate hikes during the remainder of 2011, although we don't expect any prominent increase in benchmark demand deposit rates. We believe 2011's monetary policy will continue to have mild impact on NIM. Currently H-share Chinese banks are trading at 8.5x2011E P/E and 1.5x2011E P/B, which we think has factored in the passive market sentiment on the tightening monetary policies. We like the room for growth for H-share banks and maintain Recommend rating.

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