招商证券*港股研究*中国航空业评论——航空公司的成本不可控，且?代威胁严重***余黄炎

报告名称：中国航空业评论——航空公司的成本不可控，且替代威胁严重
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*行业报告
报告日期：20110307

行业/子行业：航空机场
公司名称及代码：
投资建议：

【内容摘要】

我们应用迈克尔·波特的五力模型分析中国国内航空客运业的行业环境。我们以中国国航为行业的代表进行分析。我们的结论是，中国国内航空客运业的行业环境较为恶劣，航空公司在面对供应商时缺乏谈判优势，同时还面临着行业内的激烈竞争和高速铁路的威胁。这种行业环境决定了航空公司很难获得较高的盈利和投资回报率。

行业内现有公司：都具备扩张冲动 航空公司由于其业务网络性的原因，天然地喜好规模扩张。包括中国国航在内的国内航空公司，都在积极扩充运力。

行业新进入者：暂无 航空业由于资本需求大、行业管制多、技术性强、飞行员紧缺等原因，新进入者进入该领域有较大的障碍。目前中国民航局也暂不批准新的航空公司设立。

替代威胁：高铁将逐步规模化运营 中国高速铁路的建设正在积极推进。按照建设进度，今年内京沪高铁、京广深高铁、沪深高铁将开通。2012年，京哈(大)高铁和沪汉蓉高铁将开通。

燃油价格和飞机购买成本不可控 燃油方面，航空公司完全是油价的接受者。飞机购买方面，飞机制造行业处于寡头垄断状态，航空公司的谈判能力较弱。

客户：极度分散，忠诚度低 对于航空公司来说，旅客是非常分散的个体。旅客对航空公司的忠诚度较低。航空公司的差异化竞争不明显。

盈利预测和评级调整 我们根据国际原油价格情况，提高2011年国际原油平均价格假设，从85美元/桶提高至90美元/桶。于是下调航空公司的盈利预测，并下调中国国航和国泰航空的评级。

We apply Michael Porter's Five Forces Model analysis on China's passenger air transportation industry. We choose Air China as an example of China's passenger air transportation industry. We conclude that passenger air transportation is not a profitable business. On one hand, airlines have little bargain power in negotiations with their suppliers, such as aircraft manufacturers, airports and fuel suppliers. On the other hand, airlines face keen competition of their peers and high-speed railways.

Air China and its peers: have natural motive to expand their fleet capacity. Airlines' business has the character of network. Airlines are usually inclined to expand their fleet capacity.

Threat from high-speed railways is coming soon. China is pushing on the construction of high-speed railways. Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen High-Speed Railway and Shanghai-Shenzhen High-Speed Railway are major substitutes of domestic air transportation.

Airlines have little bargain power in negotiations with their suppliers. First, airlines have no bargain power in fuel price. Second, airlines have little bargain power in negotiations with Boeing and Airbus. Third, airports seldom change their service charges to airlines.

Earnings forecasts revision and ratings change. We have raised our crude oil average price assumption in 2011 from US$ 85/barrel to US$ 90/barrel. Then we cut our earnings forecasts and downgrade Air China and Cathay Pacific.


【摘要结束】