招商证券*港股研究*国泰航空(00293.HK)－上半年盈利超预期*00293**余黄炎

报告名称：国泰航空(00293.HK)－上半年盈利超预期
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20100811

行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：国泰航空(00293)
投资建议：买入

【内容摘要】

Cathay Pacific reported net profit of HK$6,840 million and recurrent net profit of HK$5,054 million for the first half of 2010, better than our expectation. We have revised up the company's recurrent net profit forecast for 2010 to HK$8,660m, or HK$2.2 per share. We raise the target price to HK$23.50, based on 1.8x PB ratio and 2010E BVPS. Reiterate Buy.

Passenger yield and cargo yield rebounded as expected. Passenger yield in 1H2010 was HK$ 0.58, up 18% YoY. Cargo yield in 1H2010 was HK$ 2.26, up 36% YoY. We expect passenger yield and cargo yield in the second half of 2010 will maintain strong.

Operating expenditure growth was lower than expectation. Cathay Pacific's revenue increased by 34% YoY in 1H2010, but its total operating expenses only increased by 26% YoY. Landing, parking and route expenses rose slightly. Depreciation and amortization expenses also rose moderately.

Purchase of A350 aims to fleet upgrading instead of ambitious expansion. Recently, Cathay Pacific entered into a letter of intent with Airbus Company in relation to the acquisition of 30 Airbus A350-900 aircraft. We believe that Cathay Pacific will use A350 to gradually replace its A330 and A340 aircrafts in the middle term.

Earnings forecasts and target price revision. We have revised up the company's recurrent net profit forecast for 2010 to HK$8,660m, or HK$2.2 per share. Accordingly, we raise the target price to HK$23.50, based on 1.8x PB ratio and 2010E BVPS. Reiterate Buy.


国泰航空上半年净利润为68.4亿港元，经常性净利润为50.5亿港元，超出我们预期，原因在于营业开支的增长低于我们估计。我们预计下半年公司经常性盈利将略低于上半年， 2010年全年经常性净利润将达到86.6亿港元，合每股经常性盈利2.2港元。我们将目标价从上次报告中的HK$21.20上调至HK23.50，评级仍然为"买入"。

单位客运收益和货运收益符合预期 2010年上半年公司每收入客公里收益0.58港元，比2009年同期上升18%，尚未回到2008年的水平。2010年上半年每收入货运吨公里收益2.26港元，比2009年同期上升36%，尚未回到2008年的水平。

营业开支增长较少是净利润增长的重要原因 上半年公司营业额同比增长34%，但营业开支仅增长26%。其中着陆、停泊及航线开支增幅小，占营业额的比重下降3个百分点至13%。折旧及摊销开支也低于预期，占营业额的比重下降1个百分点至8%。

购买A350并非大规模扩张运力 国泰航空最近公告与空客公司签订意向书，拟购买30架A350-900客机。飞机交付时间可能为2016－2019年。A350机型是空客公司研发中的新机型。预计国泰航空将用A350逐步取代目前运营的A330和A340，而非进行运力的大规模扩张。

盈利预测和估值上调 我们将国泰航空2010年经常性净利润预测上调至86.6亿港元，合每股经常性盈利2.2港元。我们以2010年末预测每股净资产和1.8倍目标市净率，对公司估值为HK$23.50，评级维持"买入"。


【摘要结束】