招商证券*港股研究*中外运航运(00368.HK)－面临与长航凤凰重组的不确定性*00368**余黄炎

报告名称：中外运航运(00368.HK)－面临与长航凤凰重组的不确定性
研究员：余黄炎
报告类型：港股研究*公司报告
报告日期：20100813

行业/子行业：
公司名称及代码：中外运航运(00368)
投资建议：买入

【内容摘要】

Sinotrans Shipping reported net profit of US$ 58 million for 1H2010, down 9% YoY. By now, the company's 85% shipping capacity has been contracted for 2010. We expect its net profit in whole 2010 will be only US$121 million. Currently the company's parent is considering integrating the business of Sinotrans Shipping and CSC Phoenix, which we actually worry about. We cut our target price to HK$4.10 per share. Maintain BUY due to attractive valuation.

Earning in the first half slightly lower than expectation. Sinotrans Shipping reported net profit of US$ 58 million for 1H2010, down 9% YoY. Its dry bulk ships daily TCE in 1H2010 was 19,100 US$, down 5% YoY.

Earning in whole 2010 would be around US$121 million. By now, the company's 85% shipping capacity has been contracted. The earning in the second half would be a little higher than that in the first half, according BDI record. Therefore we expect its net profit for whole 2010 will be US$121 million.

Face the risk of potential integration with CSC Phoenix. Sinotrans Shipping's parent is considering integrating the businesses of Sinotrans Shipping and CSC Phoenix. CSC Phoenix (000520.CH) is an A share listed company with poor profitability. The potential integration may bring trouble to Sinotrans Shipping.

Cut target price to HK$ 4.10 per share. We apply PB multiple to value Sinotrans Shipping. According its uncertain integration with CSC Phoenix, we cut the target price to HK$4.10 per share, based on 1.0x PB ratio and 2010E book value per share.

中外运航运上半年盈利为5800万美元，同比下跌9%，略低于我们预期。截止目前，公司已有船舶的全年运力的85%已经签约出租，我们预计今年下半年公司的盈利将略高于上半年，全年盈利将为1.21亿美元。目前公司大股东试图推进公司与长航凤凰的业务合并，我们担忧与长航凤凰的业务合并可能为公司带来经营风险。我们仍按PB倍数估值，但将目标PB从1.2倍下调至1.0倍，目标价下调至每股HK$4.10，维持"买入"评级。

上半年盈利略逊预期 中外运航运上半年盈利为5800万美元，同比下跌9%。上半年干散货船日均租金费率为1.91万美元，同比下跌5%。

预计下半年盈利略高于上半年 截止目前，公司已有船舶的全年运力的85%已经签约出租锁定运价，这表明公司下半年盈利状况的情况已经基本确定，除非今年第四季度运价大幅上涨或下跌。我们预计下半年公司盈利为6300万美元，全年盈利为1.21亿美元。

面临与长航凤凰重组的不确定性 大股东中外运长航集团正在推进中外运航运与大股东旗下其他业务的重组。油轮业务即将出售给长航油运(600087.CH)。公司的干散货业务可能与长航凤凰(000520.CH)的干散货业务以某种方式重组。考虑到长航凤凰的现有业务盈利能力较差，未来运力扩张的风险较大，我们担心中外运航运与长航凤凰的重组会拖累中外运航运。

估值下调为HK$4.10 我们仍对公司按PB倍数估值，但因为不看好公司与长航凤凰的业务重组，将目标PB从1.2倍下调至1.0倍，于是目标价下调至每股HK$4.10。公司目前股价仍然偏低，因此维持"买入"评级。


【摘要结束】